大型重点建设项目风险管理/同济大学助力国家创新发展系列丛书

施骞 博士，现为同济大学经济与管理学院副院长，建设管理与房地产系教授，博士生导师，美国项目管理学会PMI-GAC理事，CPEC理事，上海市土木工程学会理事、管理专业委员会主任委员，上海市工程管理学会副理事长，国际设施管理学会（IFMA）上海区原主席。曾获得欧盟Erasmus Mundus学者基金资助，在美国出版学术专著1部，参与国际标准（ISO/TC279）WG3工作组工作、参与国家标准(GB/T50430-2007)编制。担任Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review、European Journal of Operational Research、International Journal of Project Management、Automation in Construction、ASCE-Journal of Urban Planning and Development等国际期刊的审稿人。主要教学和科研领域包括：工程管理、项目管理、风险管理等。

《大型重点建设项目风险管理》吸收国内外先进、权威的项目风险管理理论和方法体系，整合了研究界和实践界的团队，理论和实践相结合。

目 录

第1章　绪论
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1.1　本书编写的背景
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1.2　本书编写的目的
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1.3　本书的主要内容
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第2章　大型重点建设项目风险管理的理论基础
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2.1　风险管理的基本过程
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2.2　风险识别技术与方法
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2.3　风险分析与评价方法
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2.4 风险应对方法 ··········································································24

2.5 风险监控技术与方法 ·······························································27

第3章 大型重点建设项目风险概述···············································29

3.1 大型重点建设项目的复杂性及其风险的特点 ··························30

3.2 大型重点建设项目风险管理的难点 ·········································32

3.3 大型重点建设项目风险管理的阶段划分及风险分解结构 ·······34



第
4
章 大型重点建设项目决策阶段的风险管理···························· 37

4.1 决策阶段的风险因素识别························································39

4.2 决策阶段的风险分析与评价 ····················································41

4.3 决策阶段的风险应对与控制 ····················································42

第
5
章 大型重点建设项目设计阶段的风险管理···························· 47

5.1 设计阶段的风险因素识别························································49

5.2 设计阶段的风险分析与评价 ····················································51

5.3 设计阶段的风险控制 ·······························································51

第
6
章 大型重点建设项目施工阶段的风险管理···························· 55

6.1 施工阶段的风险因素识别························································56

6.2 施工阶段的风险分析与控制 ····················································61

6.3 施工阶段的风险监控方法························································64

第
7
章 大型重点建设项目审计风险··············································· 67

7.1 内部审计与外部审计 ·······························································69

7.2 审计风险识别 ··········································································70

7.3 审计风险评价 ··········································································72

7.4 审计风险控制对策···································································73

第
8
章 大型重点建设项目风险链分析与控制································ 75

8.1 大型重点建设项目风险传导规律分析 ·····································76

8.2 关键风险链识别·······································································85

8.3 关键风险链的控制···································································92

第
9
章 新兴技术在大型重点建设项目风险管理中的应用············· 99

9.1 基于无人机技术的建设过程风险监控 ···································100


9.2 基于大数据技术的风险识别与预警·······································104

9.3 基于建筑信息模型技术的全生命周期风险管理 ····················108

第10
章 典型案例········································································113

10.1 案例Ⅰ：大型建设项目决策风险—以英法海底隧道为例 ···114

10.2　案例Ⅱ：基于过程失效模式及后果分析法的风险管理—
以某房屋建设项目为例···················································123

10.3　案例Ⅲ：基于风险清单和层次分析法的风险评价—
以某水厂项目为例·······························································128

10.4　案例Ⅳ：风险传导演化分析—以上海“11·15”特别重大
火灾事故为例······································································132

10.5 案例V：以南非新建核电项目风险链分析与控制为例 ·······137

第11
章 政府投资大型重点建设项目关键风险点控制················163

11.1 项目审计风险控制 ·······························································164

11.2 项目投资风险控制 ·······························································165

11.3 项目设计风险控制 ·······························································167

11.4 EPC 总承包模式风险控制····················································169

附录····································································································171

附录一项目审计风险控制清单 ···················································172
附录二项目投资风险控制清单 ···················································178
附录三项目设计风险控制清单 ···················································186
附录四 EPC 总承包模式风险控制清单········································194

参考文献··························································································199